Hey Nikhil i stumble upon this website after watching a video on youtube. I read ur thesis for like 4 hrs and all i can say is that even though i didnt understand some of words there and the price of eth is now under 16 hundred im a bit positive to hold my eth for a long term. I truly believe that the merge for eth to pos will be the game changer for eth. Btw im from the philippines and currently have 4 eth right now and looking forward to make this to a $100k in the future also i would like to ask what is your take about alchemy pay? Thank u very much.
Hey Nikhil, I think you might be interested in the Ethereum price models I built. You can find, in particular, a DCF that fixes your main pet peeve (which I share) with Ryan Allis' DCF.
With very conservative assumptions I get fair values much closer to your model:
Hey Nikhil, I really think that you should copy out the section on whether or not supply shocks can be priced in and publish that as it’s own thing. Maybe if you have time add in some more supporting data too.
I think that one of the biggest misconceptions I regularly run into around high post-merge ETH prices is that the market has already priced them in. Being able to point people to a well written resource would be awesome
Hi Squish, the one page summary itself + your podcast on Macro Hive were excellent reads / Listen Squish. Love the clarity of thought and more importantly presentation of your ideas in a very understandable fashion for the masses (like me!). I hope to get stuck into the 77 page full paper soon. Agree with most of all you say and you did address the question on the Podcast about the 'triple' halving events being priced in or not. Would love any colour you can add to the view that it is NOT priced in. Having said that, for context I am bullish as well LT for ETH, but contemplating on increasing the allocation (probably best done through options :). Thanks for sharing your thoughts and ideas - wonderful stuff.
Thanks so much for your lucid conversation with Bilal! Your modesty and analytical power make me believe you will make an excellent practitioner in Integrative Medicine, should you choose that route.
Hi Squish, love your work - a lot of interesting points. However, just wanted to be a Devil's advocate and draw attention to some possible flaws. E.g. Isn't there a problem with the assumption that we will have a 25% ETH yield and saying this will lead to inelastic demand? 1) Justin Drake's projected 25% yields seem inconsistent with most other sources (https://www.stakingrewards.com/journal/ultimate-ethereum-2-0-staking-guide) 2) As of time of writing, we have already exceeded 6M stakers (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ether-eth-ethereum-2-network-upgrades-staking-jpmorgan-2021-7) so the yield at the time of merge will be less than 25% even if Justin Drake's projection is correct. 3) Yield curves decline hyperbolically as staking increases - in this case how can demand for staking be inelastic?
Great work! I have been buying Grayscale Ethereum Trust in my IRA. It has traditionally traded at a premium. Right now, it is trading at a a slight discount. The discount has been caused by a a large unlock of shares over the past 6 months. Those unlocks will end this week. I think demand will push this premium to past levels. The trust will be the only way to play ethereum in retirement accounts. This could be another way to leverage the thesis. The downside is that you can only trade during market hours. I have a feeling that the your price target would be hit during illiquid evenings or weekends. Really enjoyed the analysis.
Hi Squish. I'm extremely new to ETH and found your thesis very enlightening! I was wondering if a paper by John Pfeffer has any bearing on your thesis? I guess what I am asking is for your opinion/take on what this paper says in comparison to your thesis? Thx for your anticipated reply. Great luck with your medical career/studies. https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor's+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf
The section on memeability is critical to investor psychology. I think ETH has it.
The internet has had more of impact on reality, meme culture increasingly is the culture
Covid put everyone at home and plugged into a few key events: GME, BTC halvening (plus knowing what is from 2017), Dogecoin’s rise, global chip shortage/supply shocks, inflation and inflation fears.
From this, investors are primed for this narrative: “Get your money out of cash, stocks are rigged, people have already made fortunes off a joke coin, the numbers are all made up, might as well be you, go all in on the triple halvening.” Plus the general sense of FOMO inflicted by the pandemic and our strange return to 'normal'.
Great read - thank you!
Hi Squish. I am very grateful for this report. I write Coinstack at coinstack.substack.com and have $100k price target for ETH :)
Hey Nikhil i stumble upon this website after watching a video on youtube. I read ur thesis for like 4 hrs and all i can say is that even though i didnt understand some of words there and the price of eth is now under 16 hundred im a bit positive to hold my eth for a long term. I truly believe that the merge for eth to pos will be the game changer for eth. Btw im from the philippines and currently have 4 eth right now and looking forward to make this to a $100k in the future also i would like to ask what is your take about alchemy pay? Thank u very much.
Hey Nikhil, I think you might be interested in the Ethereum price models I built. You can find, in particular, a DCF that fixes your main pet peeve (which I share) with Ryan Allis' DCF.
With very conservative assumptions I get fair values much closer to your model:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vqKJlqAmccQOvgzzgy_asz2QVGUYf4Wdfn2nNSDj3cA/edit?usp=sharing
Hey Nikhil, I really think that you should copy out the section on whether or not supply shocks can be priced in and publish that as it’s own thing. Maybe if you have time add in some more supporting data too.
I think that one of the biggest misconceptions I regularly run into around high post-merge ETH prices is that the market has already priced them in. Being able to point people to a well written resource would be awesome
Hi Squish, the one page summary itself + your podcast on Macro Hive were excellent reads / Listen Squish. Love the clarity of thought and more importantly presentation of your ideas in a very understandable fashion for the masses (like me!). I hope to get stuck into the 77 page full paper soon. Agree with most of all you say and you did address the question on the Podcast about the 'triple' halving events being priced in or not. Would love any colour you can add to the view that it is NOT priced in. Having said that, for context I am bullish as well LT for ETH, but contemplating on increasing the allocation (probably best done through options :). Thanks for sharing your thoughts and ideas - wonderful stuff.
Thanks so much for your lucid conversation with Bilal! Your modesty and analytical power make me believe you will make an excellent practitioner in Integrative Medicine, should you choose that route.
Hi Squish, love your work - a lot of interesting points. However, just wanted to be a Devil's advocate and draw attention to some possible flaws. E.g. Isn't there a problem with the assumption that we will have a 25% ETH yield and saying this will lead to inelastic demand? 1) Justin Drake's projected 25% yields seem inconsistent with most other sources (https://www.stakingrewards.com/journal/ultimate-ethereum-2-0-staking-guide) 2) As of time of writing, we have already exceeded 6M stakers (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ether-eth-ethereum-2-network-upgrades-staking-jpmorgan-2021-7) so the yield at the time of merge will be less than 25% even if Justin Drake's projection is correct. 3) Yield curves decline hyperbolically as staking increases - in this case how can demand for staking be inelastic?
Great work! I have been buying Grayscale Ethereum Trust in my IRA. It has traditionally traded at a premium. Right now, it is trading at a a slight discount. The discount has been caused by a a large unlock of shares over the past 6 months. Those unlocks will end this week. I think demand will push this premium to past levels. The trust will be the only way to play ethereum in retirement accounts. This could be another way to leverage the thesis. The downside is that you can only trade during market hours. I have a feeling that the your price target would be hit during illiquid evenings or weekends. Really enjoyed the analysis.
it is cool .tks bro
Hi Squish. I'm extremely new to ETH and found your thesis very enlightening! I was wondering if a paper by John Pfeffer has any bearing on your thesis? I guess what I am asking is for your opinion/take on what this paper says in comparison to your thesis? Thx for your anticipated reply. Great luck with your medical career/studies. https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor's+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf
The section on memeability is critical to investor psychology. I think ETH has it.
The internet has had more of impact on reality, meme culture increasingly is the culture
Covid put everyone at home and plugged into a few key events: GME, BTC halvening (plus knowing what is from 2017), Dogecoin’s rise, global chip shortage/supply shocks, inflation and inflation fears.
From this, investors are primed for this narrative: “Get your money out of cash, stocks are rigged, people have already made fortunes off a joke coin, the numbers are all made up, might as well be you, go all in on the triple halvening.” Plus the general sense of FOMO inflicted by the pandemic and our strange return to 'normal'.